Bitcoin coin on a chart, next to it a green and a red arrow. Is BTC rising or falling?
Price analysis based on the value pair BTC/USD on Coinbase
The sideways phase of the Bitcoin price that began in the previous week has continued for the time being. On the upside, the area around USD 38,000 has had a price-limiting effect in recent trading days. On the downside, the support area around USD 34,000 seems to provide support for the time being. A breakout from this Bitcoin Rush trading range in the coming trading days should lead to a directional decision.
Bullish scenario (Bitcoin price)
The BTC price continued to trend sideways within a USD 4,000 range this trading week. As long as Bitcoin does not fall below USD 37,770 on the daily closing price and thus sustainably abandons the EMA20 (red), there are still chances of a rise back towards the upper edge of the range at USD 37,910. If the BTC price can rise back above the resistance at USD 35,025 and also recapture USD 36,097, the range around USD 37,910 will once again come into the focus of investors. If the bulls manage to overcome this resistance level dynamically, the chart picture will brighten noticeably. The BTC price should then again target the area around 39,130 USD.
Only if Bitcoin also breaks through this resistance level dynamically can a renewed approach of USD 40,407 be expected. If investors take courage and increasingly bet on a rising BTC price, the probability of a price increase to the all-time high at 41,970 USD increases. If this chart level is also sustainably overcome, a rise to USD 43,703 should be planned. This is the 461 Fibonacci extension from the daily chart. If the bulls can also break through this resistance level, the next important hurdle awaits at USD 45,710. This price level is taken from the monthly chart. Only if the rally gains noticeable momentum again and the psychological mark of 50,000 USD is overcome, a rise to the mentioned chart targets for 2021 at 61,694 USD and 77,678 USD can be expected in the medium term.
Bearish scenario (Bitcoin price)
The Bitcoin price recently failed to recapture the psychological resistance at USD 40,000. Bitcoin repeatedly failed to overcome the resistance at 39,130 USD on the daily closing and repeatedly turned south. Bitcoin is currently trading in the area of the EMA20 (red) at 34,500 USD. If the BTC price falls below the EMA20 (red) at the end of the day and also falls below USD 33,770, a correction to USD 32,237 is likely. If the bears also manage to sustainably undercut this important support, a correction extension to the purple support line at USD 29,748 is to be planned. The area around USD 30,000 currently acts as a strong support, which is why the bulls are expected to put up more resistance. Only if this support area is clearly undercut will the correction extend to the selling level at USD 27,563.
At this chart level, investors will again try to move the price back towards USD 30,000. If, on the other hand, the selling pressure persists and the BTC price falls below USD 27,563 on the daily closing price, a correction towards USD 25,752 is to be planned. If the bulls do not come back here either, a decline to the support area between USD 23,887 and USD 23,710 is conceivable. This is where the price gap from the CME futures price and the breakout level from 25 December runs. Should this strong support also fail to provide support, the BTC price will set its sights on 21,892. This bearish price scenario increases the probability of a consistency test of the 2017 all-time high at USD 19,884. For the time being, such a strong price correction is considered unlikely. Only if the BTC price falls below USD 29,748 at the end of the day will the probability of further price consolidation increase.